Ken Holland, Detroit Red Wings GM, is known for saying that teams in playoff positions at Thanksgiving will likely be in playoff spots at the end of the season. Statistics show that this holds up about 75 percent of the time. With that, let's take a look at the four teams that will fall out by April, and the four lucky teams that will replace them.
Detroit Red Wings (11-8-3, 25 points): We'll start by looking at Holland's own team, the Red Wings, who are very familiar with being in good spots at Thanksgiving, since they've made the playoffs every year in my life and then some. They currently hold the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, but also in a three-way tie for third in the Atlantic Division with the Bruins (more on them later) and Lightning, but also with the Islanders for the wild card. There's a lot to like about the Red Wings, who have a group of veterans with Cup experience, and two solid goalies in Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek. However, the core is only producing 2.28 goals per game, in the mid-20s league-wide, and as the season wears on, the veterans will not hold up as well. When injuries start piling up, no amount of Dylan Larkin is going to extend the Red Wings' historical playoff streak.
New York Islanders (11-8-3, 25 points): The tiebreaker is currently betraying the Islanders, but they should be able to cash in on the expected misfortunes of the Red Wings. The Islanders are tied with the Red Wings on Thanksgiving, but the Islanders have much better goal scoring led by star center John Tavares and slightly better goaltending in Jaroslav Halak. The key to the Islanders grabbing a playoff spot is the health of those two players, who have missed a handful of games each this season. The Islanders will also need to pay attention to health as a whole, as their very physical bottom-six and defense may wear down a bit more than more skill-oriented teams.
Boston Bruins (12-8-1, 25 points): The Bruins are in third in the Atlantic Division, but how they've gotten there is a bit unusual. Offseason moves sent Milan Lucic to the Kings and Dougie Hamilton to the Flames, leaving the forwards and defense groups depleted for the upcoming season. Injuries to top defenders Dennis Seidenberg and Zdeno Chara got the Bruins off to a rocky start, but they have remained competitive with production from players like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, which lead them to the third-best offense in the league. If the Bruins want to hold on, Finnish goalie Tuukka Rask will have to return to career averages, a trajectory he's been aiming toward in recent games. The defense will remain suspect, with graybeards leading the way and inexperienced players at the bottom making sure Rask faces a lot of rubber every game.
Florida Panthers (8-9-4, 20 points): The Panthers are currently five points out of the playoffs, which is practically a death sentence at this point in the season. Still, the chemistry between Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Aleksander Barkov can't be denied, and a young team should be able to grow this season. At the back, Roberto Luongo is still a world-class goalie despite his advanced age. With Aaron Ekblad developing into a team leader on defense, and the Panthers holding reasonable averages in most offense and defense categories, their current level of production may be able to luck them into the playoffs should teams in front of them falter.
Minnesota Wild (11-6-3, 25 points): The Wild are an interesting team, currently in the second wild card spot in the Western Conference. The Wild have a top offense, ranked seventh in the league, but they're shooting nearly 11 percent, which has to be unsustainable, especially with Zach Parise still not back in the lineup yet. Devan Dubnyk hasn't played as well as he did at the end of last season either, playing closer to his career averages, and any drop-off in offense will almost assuredly leave the Wild out of a playoff spot in a Central Division that will probably send five teams to the playoffs easily.
Winnipeg Jets (10-11-2, 22 points): The Winnipeg Jets should benefit from the Wild falling off a bit. The Jets have not faced many major injuries to offensive contributors, and trading Evander Kane last season was a bit of addition by subtraction. The Jets also have one of the best first lines in the game with Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd, and Blake Wheeler. The defense is also serviceable on all three pairings, though no defenseman on the team is truly great. Their shooting percentage is in the middle of the league at 9.3 percent, and they've scored outscored the Wild so far this season. Additionally, the injury to Ondrej Pavelec could be a blessing in disguise. Michael Hutchinson and Connor Hellebuyck will man the net in Pavelec's absence, and if they can bring up the mediocre save percentage, there's no reason to think the Jets won't make the playoffs for a second straight year.
Vancouver Canucks (9-8-6, 24 points): The first thing that should give Canucks fans pause is the 6 at the end of their record. Six regulation losses in 23 games is a worrisome trend for Vancouver. The defense isn't much to brag about either, and Ryan Miller isn't getting any younger. Miller has looked vulnerable in previous seasons, especially late, and Jacob Markstrom is unproven as a backup at the NHL level. The Canucks do have an advantage in their offense, including a resurgent Sedin twins working with Radim Vrbata. Their center depth, with Bo Horvat and Jared McCann is also concerning, and it makes the Canucks look vulnerable despite occupying the third spot in the Pacific, especially considering the team creeping up behind them that should take their spot.
Anaheim Ducks (8-11-4, 20 points): The Ducks' problems this season are well documented, with their very light offense to start the season and inconsistency in goal with Frederik Andersen and Anton Khudobin. Still, these are the Ducks, a team many people believed to be Cup-competitive this season. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are beginning to click, Ryan Kesler's slump is coming to an end, and the defense is laden with many very solid players. As soon as Jakob Silfverberg gets going in the top-six, and maybe a trade occurs to inject some new life into the roster, the Ducks will be just fine, and the Canucks are all but certain to pay for it by falling out of the last playoff spot for the Pacific Division. Their offense cannot be this bad for an entire 82-game schedule.
If I had to take a guess, the Ducks and Islanders are the best bets for making the playoffs if less than four teams can make the jump. The Bruins and Canucks are most likely to fall out, but only time will tell, with three-quarters of a season left for anyone to get on a big run or slump and shake everything up.
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