Thursday, April 14, 2016

NWSL Predictions 2016

It's almost here, as the historic fourth season for the NWSL kicks off on April 16. With ten teams, the NWSL is doing something no other women's professional soccer league has done in the United States. Let's take a look at how the star-studded league might shake out this season.

Opinions
The last two years have seen very little change in terms of which teams make the playoffs. The Seattle Reign have won the last two NWSL Shields for the regular season title, and FC Kansas City has won the last two championships. The Washington Spirit have played the role of contender, and the Chicago Red Stars finally made the postseason last year. This year, things have to change, even a little bit. One team that will probably be making those moves is the Portland Thorns. With an internationally-trained Lindsey Horan, first overall pick Emily Sonnett, and the ever-creative and dangerous Tobin Heath, as well as one of the better supporting casts in the league, the Thorns should be able to overcome losing Alex Morgan via trade. The Olympic break may give the Thorns a bit of trouble, but they could shake things up for the three months before the break. The Seattle Reign can never be counted out, but without the services of Megan Rapinoe, they will lean even more heavily on Kim Little and Jess Fishlock from the midfield. The defense looks to remain solid, but there's no guarantee on how that will hold up.

In the midwest, FC Kansas City clearly can't be counted out. With a back line anchored by Becky Sauerbrunn, the Blues have as good a chance as any. However, they will be battling with Lauren Holiday's retirement and Amy Rodriguez's pregnancy, as well as potential international duty for Heather O'Reilly and Sauerbrunn. Nicole Barnhart will still be in goal, but they may be playing a more defensive game this season. To the south, the Houston Dash return a very exciting attacking core led by Carli Lloyd and Kealia Ohai, but they still lack that extra star-power, and they've lost a bit of tenacity with Meghan Klingenberg now in Portland. The Chicago Red Stars' biggest concern may not be with personnel, but with their new home. Playing at Toyota Park may take some getting used to for the team, but they'll have to adapt quickly if they want to keep pace over the 20-game season. Having the dynamic striker Christen Press should serve them well if she can hit the ground running and get into a groove as she pushes for inclusion on the Olympic roster.

To the east, there's not a lot of hope yet for the Boston Breakers. They're young in goal and lack a stout defense. Stephanie McCaffrey and Kristie Mewis are the main offensive threats, but they will need a lot more if they want to keep pace. Likewise, the Western New York Flash appear to be in a transitional season with a new coach and not a lot of scoring on the roster. They will likewise have their struggles this season. The Washington Spirit would certainly like to take the next step this year, and their mix of solid veterans and young players should serve them well. Kelsey Wys is probably a downgrade from Ashlyn Harris in goal, but with Crystal Dunn around, anything is possible. The Spirit will need a lot more out of their set pieces this season, having struggled in that regard last year. Another team not likely to make many waves is Sky Blue FC. Losing Nadia Nadim, arguably their best player last season, will hurt the offense, and it will be on Sam Kerr primarily to fill the void with the goal scoring. The team has not found much success in the NWSL, but Christie Rampone will provide the veteran presence they need under a new coach for this year. Last but not least, the Orlando Pride will be the center of attention this year, with Alex Morgan leading the expansion team's band of vigilantes. Anchoring the midfield is the underrated Canadian international Kaylyn Kyle, and having Ashlyn Harris in goal will probably help their cause as well. Still, expectations should be tempered for the team as they try to find chemistry as the first NWSL team in the southeast.

Standings
FC Kansas City
Portland Thorns
Seattle Reign
Chicago Red Stars
Washington Spirit
Houston Dash
Orlando Pride
Western New York Flash
Boston Breakers
Sky Blue FC

Awards
MVP: Tobin Heath
Coach of the Year: Mark Parsons
Defender of the Year: Julie Johnston
Goalkeeper of the Year: Nicole Barnhart
Rookie of the Year: Raquel Rodriguez
Golden Boot: Christen Press

Best XI
Nicole Barnhart
Lauren Barnes
Julie Johnston
Becky Sauerbrunn
Jaelene Hinkle
Kaylyn Kyle
Jess Fishlock
Tobin Heath
Christen Press
Kealia Ohai
Kim Little

What do you think? Let me know in the comments. Also, check back here on Saturday for the first three game recaps of the season.

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