Contenders or Pretenders? Analyzing the NHL Playoff Field

It appears that a lot of the teams currently occupying playoff spots in the NHL are probably going to make it with fairly stable leads, and many of the teams behind them are too far out of a spot at this point. This means that it's time to take a more significant look at how these teams will fare once the second season gets going.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The top three teams in each division look pretty set at this point, and while there's a thick battle for the final wild card slot, whichever lucky team between the Avalanche and Jets are probably just a sacrifice to the top division winner. The Nashville Predators are likely taking the first wild card slot, and while the addition of Ryan Johansen has looked good and Craig Smith in particular has excelled recently, there's not a lot of reasons to like their chances of being a Cinderella story this season. The top teams in the west are just too good to topple, especially for a team backstopped by the inconsistent Pekka Rinne in goal. Nashville does have a fair amount of young talent on the team, and a good mix of veterans like James Neal and Shea Weber, so the future is near for them, but this isn't the year.

The Big Three of the Central Division, the Blackhawks, Blues, and Stars, represent three very distinct phases of success. While all are fairly close in points, wins in the regular season mean very little in the playoffs.

The Blachkawks are one of the biggest success stories in rebuilding for the last decade. They went from bottom of the heap to perennial power, and with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane still in the their primes, the Blackhawks are definitely contenders for this season and beyond. A strong supporting cast with Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov on Kane's line and trade deadline additions of Andrew Ladd and Tomas Fleischmann, among others, has this team overflowing with NHL talent. Christian Ehrhoff as an extra body on defense won't hurt either, considering the Blackhawks romped to last year's Stanley Cup win with essentially four defensemen after Michal Rozsival's injury.

The St. Louis Blues are not that dissimilar from the Blackhawks, except in one way: championships. The Blues have routinely made the playoffs in recent years, only to get trampled early on. The trade of T.J. Oshie to the Capitals represented a shakeup for the core, but new talent such as Vladimir Tarasenko and the emergence of Alex Steen have allowed a retooling on the fly for the Blues. They have some impressive rookies this year, such as Colton Parayko and Robby Fabbri, as well as a number of big name defensemen to keep their back end secure, but the injuries are worrisome. Not having both Jake Allen and Brian Elliott healthy for much of the season puts a lot of wear and tear on their crease. The fact that they can hang in the league's best division this long with so many games lost to injury is impressive, but the playoffs will truly test their depth against similar teams.

The Dallas Stars have burst onto the scene this year. Led by Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and a surprising rise for defenseman John Klingberg, the Stars are an exciting team to watch. They score goals, they have crafty players, and they are reviving Dallas as a destination for players. Still, they didn't get that much done at the deadline for reinforcements, and unless Kris Russell is the hero Texas wants and needs, the defense is highly suspect. Add in bloated goals-against numbers for the Finnish goaltending tandem of Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen, and the Stars probably aren't quite to contender status yet, but they should find their way into the second round on their pure offensive talent alone.

In the Pacific, the Anaheim Ducks finally look like what we thought they'd be all along. An insane run since around the new year has taken them to first in the division, toppling a middling Los Angeles Kings team (more on them later). The acquisition of David Perron from the Penguins has changed the forward group for the Ducks, as he has clicked exceptionally well with Ryan Getzlaf. Corey Perry has bumped up his scoring as well on what appears to be a second line with Rickard Rakell. Ryan Kesler's presence on the third line gives them scoring depth unlike virtually any team outside of Dallas and Chicago. The goaltending from both Frederik Andersen and John Gibson has been extremely solid, and the defense is as young and strong as ever. The only question here is how will Bruce Boudreau screw it up? His notorious tweaking of lines and rotation of goalies is his Achilles' heel, and the specter of his teams always flaming out spectacularly in the playoffs is not easy to ignore. They look like contenders right now, but that's been said many times.

The Los Angeles Kings have been falling a bit, playing at about a .500 points percentage in the last two months. Vincent Lecavalier has helped them find scoring depth since his trade from the Flyers, but the loss of Marian Gaborik to injury has been tough for the team to deal with. There have been glimpses of offense from younger talents on the lower lines, and Anze Kopitar is putting up strong numbers again, but Jeff Carter and his linemates have faded a bit over time. The defense is solid but unspectacular, and the Kings don't have a ton of urgency going forward since they had built up a pretty solid lead over time. The thing the Kings have that their rivals don't is recent success. Having split the last four Stanley Cups with the Blackhawks, the Kings know what it takes to win, and if recent history matters at all, this would be their year.

The San Jose Sharks represent the underdog team in the Pacific. Their big names are well known, but it's their goaltending that has served them well this year. Martin Jones has seized his chance to be a true number one goalie, and with experienced James Reimer (who kept the Maple Leafs in a number of games throughout his tenure), the net should be safe. The Sharks can also score pretty well, be it through the playmaking of Joe Thornton, the sniping of Joe Pavelski, or additional offense from Patrick Marleau and a now-healthy Logan Couture. Combine that with 24 goals from defenseman Brent Burns, and these Sharks could probably contend as well. If the Kings continue to stumble and draw the Sharks in the first round, this might just be the time for Northern California's own to move forward.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

The wild card race is a bit more compelling for the east, with three teams battling for two spots. The Pittsburgh Penguins own the high ground right now, and their system under Mike Sullivan is trending up, led by a resurgent Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin two-headed monster. Phil Kessel has disappointed a bit, and the defense is suspect outside of Kris Letang, but the Penguins could put up a fight against the beasts of the east. The Detroit Red Wings are in the mix again, trying to keep their playoff seasons streak alive, but there's not a lot to like about them if they can make it into the postseason. They don't have anything to set them apart, and it appears Petr Mrazek is losing steam, with Jimmy Howard snagging a few starts recently. Their margin for error is very small, so they need to be on their games going forward. Nipping at their heels, the Philadelphia Flyers are doing fairly well even with Jakub Voracek out of the lineup. Shayne Gostisbehere is having a record season for defensemen, and Sean Couturier has been solid when he's in the lineup. However, the Flyers don't have a lot of depth, and their goaltending is suspect at best, so even if they can overtake the Penguins or Red Wings, they won't last long against the Capitals.

Leading the entire league, the Washington Capitals are having a remarkable season. Their offense looks like it did in the Boudreau era. Alex Ovechkin has used sheer sniping to overtake the goals lead from Patrick Kane. Nicklas Backstrom is his elite setup man, and T.J. Oshie has worked well. The emergence of Russian talents Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky has helped the Capitals balance their offense. Justin Williams looks more comfortable in a free-flowing offense, and his playoff experience can't be ignored. However, rarely does the President's Trophy winner even make it to the Stanley Cup. Couple that with the main core of the Capitals lacking playoff success, and they seem prime to be upset in the second or third round. They have to be considered contenders with what they've done so far, but it wouldn't shock anyone to see them bow out early again.

Far below the Capitals, the New York Islanders and Rangers jockey for home ice in what's looking to be their impending first round series. Each team has a number of noticeable flaws. For the Rangers, consistency is one, as well as poor possession numbers. Henrik Lundqvist can't carry the team forever, and the defense isn't enough to turn a series. The Islanders have goaltending problems of their own. Jaroslav Halak is a clear number one when he's healthy, which has been the major caveat to their season. Thomas Greiss has been a good backup, and he might do enough to steal a series if necessary, but he'll fade eventually. Neither team has the scoring depth of the Capitals or even the wild card sides, and the Islanders best trait in particular, their physicality, is not a huge advantage in the playoffs. There's not much to like for either team in the city that never sleeps.

In the Atlantic, the best storyline features the Florida Panthers. Riding the backs of ageless wonders Jaromir Jagr and Roberto Luongo, as well as a bunch of fresh-faced stars in the making, the Panthers have put the NHL on notice. They're a fun and loose team off the ice who keep finding ways to win games and stay relevant despite below-average attendance. There's a quirky mix of veterans and youngsters in supporting roles. Reilly Smith has been a success this year, as has Vincent Trocheck, providing the ever-important secondary scoring. The one thing keeping the Panthers going has been luck, and it appears that luck is fading as they are now third in the Atlantic. They'll probably stay there, but elimination at the hands of the Bruins or Lightning seems likely.

The Boston Bruins are getting one last kick at the can for this season. Patrice Bergeron appears ready to take a major leadership role on the team whenever Zdeno Chara calls it quits, and if Brad Marchand continues playing like this, the Bruins will have to hand him a blank check. The defense is aged and young in all the wrong ways. Torey Krug seems to work well in overtime and on the power play, but not really anywhere else. Chara and Dennis Seidenberg are probably done in a couple of years. Kevan Miller and others are not enough to fix this. At forward, Loui Eriksson is probably going to walk, just to make space for Marchand. The depth is questionable. Rask could carry them, but there's plenty of reason to doubt the legitimacy of the Bruins.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, in some ways quietly and some quite loud, are right back in the fight. While losing Stamkos in free agency is a real concern, and potentially losing Jonathan Drouin over a big disagreement with his superiors also doesn't bode well, the Lightning are tied for the division lead as of this writing. The Triplets line, one of the big headline-grabbers in their run to a Stanley Cup loss last season, is quietly clicking again. The drama around Stamkos hasn't affected his play on the ice. The defense is solid, led by Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman. Ben Bishop is having a career year and has room to grow, only overshadowed by the likes of Holtby, Crawford, and Mrazek and the fact that he plays in Florida. The Lightning were close last year, and recent performances suggest they may have the best chance of anyone in the Atlantic to do it again.

In all, the contenders are the Sharks, Ducks, Kings, Blackhawks, Stars, Capitals, and Lightning. The rest of the field has a few too many flaws to be taken seriously this season when the games start to count more. With the way the playoffs are structured, it's realistic to see only five of these teams in the second round, which will be where their greatness for this season truly rises above the rest. Of course, there's always a chance some other team will get hot and throw everything out of balance for awhile. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.